6,000 years ago, ancient Babylonians erected watch towers to map the stars across the night sky and record their observations on clay tablets. Their data provided the foundation for the first calendars used to plan the growing and harvesting of crops. Nowadays, methods like biohacking and gene editing are allowing humans to not just predict the future but dictate it.
We’ve come a long way in the quest to know what’s next. It is, after all, human nature and smart business to want to know the shape of things to come. Whether you’re a devotee of empirical evidence or avoid client pitches when Mercury is in retrograde; whether you favor S-curves or tarot cards, psychics or predictive analytics, long-term planning in these uncertain times is a tough gig.
Now some things will always be certain. The sun will rise in the east. Mariah Carey will appear on the radio in December. But this era of unprecedented uncertainty - underscored by climate change, geopolitical volatility and technological advancements – calls for leaders to be forward-thinking and adaptable.
Current data and evidence suggests three potential scenarios for business travel predicts new report by CWT and GBTA: 2040: Baseline, Boom or Bust.
Who travels, to where and for what purpose could shift dramatically in the next decade and a half. The report identifies levers that should inform a long-term strategic advantage for travel and event managers.
Emissions reduction
Sustainability goals have already left an imprint on business travel, with more shifts likely by 2040. 82% of leaders surveyed by consulting firm Ernst & Young confirm their organizations have implemented carbon emissions reduction initiatives and set goals to achieve net zero.
If the trend continues, companies will increasingly integrate sustainable practices into their travel policies. This could manifest in various ways like choosing destinations and service providers recognized for their sustainable practices and a rise in eco-friendly hubs—cities, regions, or countries known for their commitment to environmental sustainability. Such destinations might offer state-of-the-art conference facilities powered by renewable energy, accommodations adhering to stringent eco-standards, or even eco-conscious incentives for businesses that choose them for meetings and events.
Tech transformation
AI alone can optimize travel routes and costs in real time, while automation processes can slash the admin associated with managing travel. McKinsey Global Institute estimates AI can add $400 billion in annual value to the travel industry. AI will help travel providers optimize resources like aircraft and hotel inventory, addressing key pain points of business travel. For example, predictive maintenance and improved weather forecasts could significantly reduce delays and cancellations.
Other technologies like Blockchain, and virtual reality (VR) could have a profound impact on business travel and events by 2040. The integration of these technologies can streamline the entire travel process, making it safer, more efficient and appealing for businesses and business travelers. But advancements like virtual reality could change the necessity of certain trips.
Tip: Read our white paper to learn how to integrate and capitalize on emerging technologies in corporate travel
Geopolitical volatility
It can feel like the only way to maintain personal well-being is to occasionally mute world news. The World Economic Forum reports 63% of leaders predict a turbulent outlook, with less than 10% expecting stability over a 10-year horizon.
Global firms should plan for geopolitical volatility. For instance, the regular presence of senior personnel can be crucial in demonstrating commitment to local partners and government bodies, which can be vital for maintaining business operations amidst instability.
Volatility can create opportunities for agile companies that are quick to adapt and can navigate complexities. Businesses might send scouts or specialized teams to explore emerging markets that arise from political shifts or economic openings.
Conversely, risk can make companies more cautious about sending employees into potentially dangerous situations. As risks rise, corporations may rely more on local partners or digital communication tools to manage their operations remotely.
Recent research suggests 25% of global trade could relocate within just the next three years amid economic and geopolitical instability. The development of robust virtual meeting platforms and real-time data-sharing tools can facilitate the kind of immediate response and decision-making needed in volatile contexts.
Consider your organizations specific needs and plans and stay informed of international law and trade agreements, visa regulations or changes in cross-border trade laws that might necessitate additional travel.
Forecasting with a human touch
Methodologies used to forecast the future are becoming increasingly sophisticated as AI allows for next-gen data insights and pattern spotting but there’s bias in algorithms and results are only as accurate as data input. For example, people might respond to surveys based on how they’re feeling that day. Polls can be inaccurate. Case in point: Brexit
Leaders who plan travel and meetings must ask the right questions of their people and ask them often. They can thrive by planning for different scenarios emphasizing sustainability, leveraging emerging technology, and anticipating geopolitical shifts. Crucially, uncertainty calls for emotional intelligence and cross-functional collaboration to foster resilience and ensure that travel and events are a force for positive and sustainable growth, globally.
Scenario development is an art and a science. Read 2040: Baseline, Boom or Bust to gain strategic insight
