When meteorologist and hurricane specialist John Morales cried, on air, while reporting on then oncoming Hurricane Milton, viewers empathized with his grief in the face of an advancing cloud of chaos forming before us. It felt symbolic of a bigger, global malaise.
“Nothing is certain in the casino of climate physics,” says climate writer Ben Cooke. We know that climate change is here but how and where will it manifest next and what can we do to stem it?
One thing is certain. The more carbon we pump into the atmosphere, the more climate change will worsen. Central, therefore, to reducing emissions is an awareness of the biggest trends to reduce them and using it to guide employee education, tracking and reporting and ultimately, policy.
CWT and GBTA report, 2040: Baseline, Boom or Bust explores three potential scenarios for the future of business travel and events driven by a convergence of technological advancements, evolving sustainability requirements and changing demographics. As environmental impact drives consumer decision-making, and in turn corporate decision-making, sustainability goals will be the new crux of corporate policy, the supplement predicts.
Here are three trends to spur action.
Use of sustainable aviation fuel will drive passenger decision-making
“It will be second nature by 2040 to consider environmental cost alongside financial cost, and for many people, it will be a much bigger driver,” says Mark Corbett, CEO of emissions reporting and reduction firm Thrust Carbon.
Sustainable aviation fuel, or alternative aviation fuel is a type of jet fuel derived from a range of feedstocks including bio-fuels, waste oils and synthetic fuels designed to lower emissions, reduce waste and, in some cases, blend with conventional jet fuel using existing infrastructure. It’s rapidly gaining traction. Passengers and organizations want to know that the airlines they choose align with their values. As such, major airlines have begun incorporating SAFs into their operations.
Tip: Consider building relationships with airlines that are invested in alternative fuel use and use your purchasing power to access sustainable aviation fuel.
Environmental impact scoring will evolve
Regulatory pressure is increasing rapidly. 2024 CSRD regulations now require EU entities to report scope 3 emissions including business travel. Regulations and directives like this are likely to increase globally.
Today, many businesses assign environmental impact scores. Future scoring methods could evolve, taking into account the efficiency of new jets vs. older models and routes which could prompt airlines to rethink traditional hub-and-spoke models.
Tip: Use data and reporting solutions that help you track your carbon emissions from travel in real-time and find avenues to shrink your carbon footprint.
Travel patterns will change
Business travelers have responded to news of record-breaking weather events by changing when and how they travel. 25% of business travelers are willing to refuse a business trip due to a lack of sustainable options (SAP Concur) and some are focusing on longer stays with fewer trips, or trip batching. By 2040, carbon taxes on air travel, stricter regulations and mandatory emissions reporting could spur major evolutions in how often we travel, where we travel and how we blend trips, both personal and for business. Business leaders will need to increasingly use real-time data and tracking and leverage artificial intelligence to inform reduction strategies.
Tip: Empower travelers to cut their emissions via travel policy, online booking tool features and carbon budgeting. There are many ways to impact policy ranging from evaluating the necessity of same-day trips, to encouraging trip-batching and direct flights, and making more responsible decisions at the point-of-sale.
For more analysis on future scenarios for business travel and events, read
2040: Baseline, Boom or Bust
Image credits: Adobe Stock